Slight-to-moderate population loss among the 40-49 age cohort in Chicago (-1.5%) and in Detroit (-6.9%) led to significant population loss among the 10-19 age cohort (-11.3% in Chicago, -11.8% in Detroit). The two are connected households headed by people in the first cohort often have children in the second cohort. Metro area population growth in Chicago and Detroit has flatlined largely because they're losing out on people in two critical age cohorts - the 40-49 age cohort and the 10-19 age cohort. The goal was to find the metro areas that were successful in attracting educated Millennials (in this study, those with college degrees between ages 20-29), but it also revealed changes among other age groups. In the report, CBRE drilled down to look at population change between 20 among various age cohorts for each of the top 50 markets in the U.S. It often comes down to who's moving, and the narratives we have about the places we come from and where we want to go.Ī recent report produced by commercial real estate services giant CBRE illustrates the first point, and highlights the Rust Belt's difficulty in overcoming its demographic challenges. Population Growth and Per Capita GDP Growth Table Credit: Pete Saunders I noted this in a piece I wrote last fall, which came with this accompanying table: Yet taken together, between 20 the Chicago-Cleveland-Detroit-Pittsburgh metro combo showed population growth of only 0.1% from 2010-2016, while the Houston-Phoenix-Orlando group grew by 13.3%. Cleveland (12th, at 10.9%) and Chicago (20th, at 8.4%) weren't far behind, and all were outpacing fast-population-growth metros like Houston (37th, 4.3%), Phoenix (40th, 2.6%) and Orlando (45th, -1.0%). Detroit ranked eighth (13.9%) and Pittsburgh ranked ninth ( 13.8%) in per capita GDP growth for the nation's 51 largest metros, behind expected leaders like San Jose, Austin, Nashville, San Francisco and Dallas. Since 2010, about the time the recovery from the Great Recession took hold, through 2016, these cities have outpaced the national average for large metros (over one million) in terms of per capita GDP growth. But more recently, they've done pretty well. Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh and others lost much of their economic standing, and by extension their population, since 1950. It's well known that America's Rust Belt cities have struggled economically since the middle of the 20th century.
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